Biography: Manasi Deshpande is an associate professor of economics with tenure at the University of Chicago Kenneth C. Griffin Department of Economics and a faculty research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Her research interests include the optimal design of social safety net programs, their interaction with labor markets, and their effects on consumption, health, and well-being. She has received the Alfred P. Sloan Research Fellowship, NSF CAREER award, and William T. Grant Scholarship. Her dissertation on the long-term effects of disability programs received the 2015 APPAM Dissertation Award, the 2015 Upjohn Institute Dissertation Award, and the 2016 NASI John Heinz Dissertation Award. She holds a Ph.D. in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and was previously a postdoctoral fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research and the Becker-Friedman Institute.
“Explaining the Historical Rise and Recent Decline in Social Security Disability Insurance Enrollment”
Abstract: After substantial growth in the 1990s and 2000s, enrollment in the U.S. Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) program has been declining since 2013. We use detailed administrative data to quantify the contributions of various factors to trends in SSDI enrollment, focusing especially on the decline in the 2010s. A statistical decomposition suggests that the vast majority of the decline in SSDI enrollment since 2013 is attributable to declines in application rates and, to a lesser extent, award rates, within demographic groups, rather than changes over time in demographic characteristics, eligibility, or rates of exit from SSDI. The decline in SSDI enrollment rates is disproportionately driven by older low-to-middle-skilled men with relatively severe health conditions who, over time, have become less likely to apply for SSDI and more likely to work. Consistent with this descriptive evidence, we present results from a causal analysis suggesting that improved labor market opportunities for older middle-skilled men could explain the decline in SSDI enrollment. We also present a set of causal estimates that rule out several popular hypotheses for the decline in SSDI applications, including lower award rates at the appeal level, a higher administrative burden of applying, greater generosity of other programs, and reductions in pollution and smoking.